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Ahmadian, F F A, Akbarnezhad, A, Rashidi, T H and Waller, S T (2016) Accounting for Transport Times in Planning Off-Site Shipment of Construction Materials. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 142(01).

Anvuur, A M and Kumaraswamy, M M (2016) Effects of Teamwork Climate on Cooperation in Crossfunctional Temporary Multi-Organization Workgroups. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 142(01).

Arashpour, M, Wakefield, R, Blismas, N and Abbasi, B (2016) Quantitative Analysis of Rate-Driven and Due Date–Driven Construction: Production Efficiency, Supervision, and Controllability in Residential Projects. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 142(01).

Colin, J and Vanhoucke, M (2016) Empirical Perspective on Activity Durations for Project-Management Simulation Studies. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 142(01).

El Asmar, M, Hanna, A S and Loh, W (2016) Evaluating Integrated Project Delivery Using the Project Quarterback Rating. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 142(01).

Joukar, A and Nahmens, I (2016) Volatility Forecast of Construction Cost Index Using General Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedastic Method. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 142(01).

  • Type: Journal Article
  • Keywords: Construction Cost Index (CCI); Forecast; Volatility; Construction; Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH); Quantitative methods;
  • ISBN/ISSN: 0733-9364
  • URL: https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)CO.1943-7862.0001020
  • Abstract:
    The Engineering News-Record (ENR) publishes the Construction Cost Index (CCI) monthly, which is a composite index of 20-city average price of construction activities in the United States. Cost estimators use this index frequently to estimate the cost of construction projects. The CCI forecast provides contractors with more accurate bids. It also helps owners with their projects’ budgeting. Previous studies have forecasted this index via multivariate and univariate techniques. Homogeneity of variance is assumed on these techniques, however the CCI shows periods of substantial volatility. So far the standard tools used to address volatility on time series have been the autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH) and generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models. In this study, a seasonal historical data set of ENR Construction Cost Index is analyzed in order to extract and forecast volatilities of the CCI in the short term. Results of this study show high and persistent volatility of the CCI in the cases of economic shocks. The maximum of the conditional variances over the entire sample period (January 1987 to July 2012) occurred in October 2008. The variance equation shows that both lags of residuals and the lag of GARCH term are highly significant, implying that the volatility of risk is influenced by past square residual terms as well as current variance of the series.

Lu, W, Ye, M, Flanagan, R and Ye, K (2016) Corporate Social Responsibility Disclosures in International Construction Business: Trends and Prospects. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 142(01).

Park, J, Marks, E, Cho, Y K and Suryanto, W (2016) Performance Test of Wireless Technologies for Personnel and Equipment Proximity Sensing in Work Zones. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 142(01).

Plebankiewicz, E and Kubek, D (2016) Multicriteria Selection of the Building Material Supplier Using AHP and Fuzzy AHP. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 142(01).

Shahata, K and Zayed, T (2016) Integrated Risk-Assessment Framework for Municipal Infrastructure. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 142(01).

Siu, M F, Lu, M and AbouRizk, S (2016) Resource Supply-Demand Matching Scheduling Approach for Construction Workface Planning. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 142(01).

Zhao, D, McCoy, A P, Kleiner, B M, Du, J and Smith-Jackson, T L (2016) Decision-Making Chains in Electrical Safety for Construction Workers. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 142(01).

Zhao, D, McCoy, A P, Kleiner, B M, Smith-Jackson, T L and Liu, G (2016) Sociotechnical Systems of Fatal Electrical Injuries in the Construction Industry. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 142(01).